"Baseball really is a glorified game of throw and catch. And if you don't have guys who throw it really well, you can't compete for long." - Tucker Elliot
The complete game by a starting pitcher will be extinct in five years.
It's a stat that has been clinging to life for many years now and, in 2018, had vital signs that barely registered on the baseball monitor. Pray for its well-being.
The complete game led a robust life, thriving in the dead ball era, holding solid through decades until the 1980's, and even enjoyed a few surprise performances into the early aughts.
Leaving behind a cadre of greats, the complete game is topped by the king, Cy Young. Back in the day when starting pitchers would throw nine innings, hit the bar all night, and get up and do it again the next morning, Young finished his career with 749 complete games.
Strategy, technological advances, and care for the welfare of pitchers advanced, in turn leading to the infrequency of the complete game. Starting pitchers who were at the tail-end of their careers during my youth barely crack the top-100 all-time on the complete game list. Tom Seaver (T-100), Bert Blyleven (T-91st), and Phil Niekro (T-85th) all had long, outstanding careers, finishing with 231, 242, and 245 complete games, respectively.
Those days are long gone.
Twenty years ago, the leaders in complete games for a season were Curt Schilling in the National League (15) and Scott Erickson in the American League (11).
In 2018? Multiple players in each league sat at the top of the list with two complete games.
Not only is this stat nearing extinction, the role of a starting pitcher is being redefined and may never be the same again.
A switch in strategy
The advent of the role of closer was one of the first shots fired in the long death knell of the complete game and starting pitcher. Or, more specifically, it was the creation of the "save" stat in 1969.
As baseball progressed so did the use of relief pitchers. Specifically, the role of specialist -- brought in to face one or two hitters -- changed the game even more. Starting pitchers, if the game was going in their favor, began to last only six or seven innings. They then gave way to one or two pitchers who bridged the gap to the closer.
These days, getting five innings out of most starting pitchers is trending to the norm, especially in the playoffs.
Many instances can be pointed to over the years as to why this has changed, but it really took hold in the 2016 playoffs. Managers Terry Francona of the Cleveland Indians and Joe Maddon of the Chicago Cubs both used their bullpen at will, foregoing traditional ideology to get their best relief pitcher in the right situation.
The strategy worked for both as each team landed in the World Series, with the Cubs finally flying the 'W' flag high with a World Series title. One can question how effective this strategy was in the long run, as Indians reliever Andrew Miller and former Cubs reliever Aroldis Chapman have not been the same since.
In the playoffs, managers will do whatever it takes with the bullpen to secure a win. That likely means trotting out relievers like marching bands at a Christmas parade. In 2018, however, the game of baseball and pitching strategy has jumped to a new level.
Two innings and done
Game 1 of the 2018 NLCS between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Milwaukee Brewers took things to a new level, albeit with a starting pitcher taking the mound and lasting a whole two innings.
Gio Gonzales of the Brewers, long-time starting pitcher with a pretty solid career, was taken out of the game not because he was getting rocked or injured. He'd allowed a run and a hit, but Brewers manager Craig Counsell made the move to the bullpen.
He did so at the expense of perhaps using his best reliever, Josh Hader. Hader ending coming in the game in the fifth inning with a 4-1 lead. He pitched three innings of magnificent baseball, but this was his longest appearance of the year and, with Game 2 coming on Saturday, was not available.
(Hader could have been used as the bullpen blew a 3-0 lead and the Brewers now trail 4-3.)
Game 1 featured 13 pitchers used between the two teams with the game lasting four hours, two minutes.
While Gonzales is a starting pitcher, teams have even begun to go away from a true starter. The Tampa Bay Rays used this approach frequently in 2018, giving a member of the bullpen the start. This pitcher would throw an inning or two before giving way to a former starter to hopefully toss the next 4-5 innings.
The Oakland A's used this approach on occasion, even doing it in their wildcard game against the New York Yankees. The result was not a good one, in this instance, but one wonders how much will see it in the 2019 season.
The extinction of the true starting pitcher
Baseball is -- and always has been -- a patient sport, but these numerous pitching changes can test even the most ardent fans.
Most teams still use a five-man (sometimes six) starting rotation. Will this trend be replaced by using an "opener" like the closer is currently used? One might envision a future where teams only have an ace or two, with the 4-5 days in between their starts be replaced with a coterie of pitchers and we have to sit through 6-7 pitching changes a game.
What do you do to halt this trend? Does major league baseball limit pitching changes to five per game unless the lead is greater than five? Does a pitcher have to face a minimum of three batters (unless he gets injured)?
I don't think either of those would (or should) be implemented. Ultimately, the choice to use multiple pitchers in a handful of ways is strategy. Just like the shift, it shouldn't be banned. It's the natural evolution of a sport that has been ingrained in American history for well over a century.
Like it or not, changes in baseball are here to stay.
photo credit: publicdomainpictures.net
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