One of the best things about the allure of March Madness and the NCAA tournament is watching teams from mid-major conferences advance. Cinderella runs through the tournament amp up the drama, the intrigue, and the suspense.
There's usually a surprise team or two each year, winning over the hearts of fans and casual observers alike. These are teams who maybe hung around in the top-25 or had a late-season run, using that momentum to string together a few upsets in the tourney.
In the 2018-19 season, three teams -- the Nevada Wolf Pack, Houston Cougars, and Buffalo Bulls -- have had dream regular seasons, as far as mid-majors go. Nevada and Houston have lived in the top-10 for long stretches, each spending the entire season ranked. Buffalo, currently ranked 19th, has spent 18 straight weeks in the top-25.
All three teams won at least one game in last season's NCAA tournament, with Nevada just missing out on a trip to the Elite Eight. Thanks to an impressive regular season, all are pegged to make some noise in this year's edition of March Madness.
Two of three teams, however, have hit some late-season snags putting a little doubt in just how good they are.
Nevada (27-3, 14-3) and Houston have both suffered losses in recent weeks, albeit to teams who are possible tournament entrants themselves. Nevada's losses -- all in conference, all on the road -- have led to likely sharing a regular season Mountain West title with the Utah State Aggies. The loss was their second in as many weeks. With seven seniors, 17th-ranked Nevada was expected to have a cakewalk in the Mountain West, but may have their work cut out from them at the Mountain West tournament in Las Vegas March 13-16.
Houston (28-2, 15-2), ranked 12th, also suffered a loss to a good team in the UCF Knights. The Cougars had a 33-game home winning streak snapped in the loss and they, too, know there is a formidable opponent waiting should the teams meet up in the American Athletic conference tournament March 14-17.
The third team out of this bunch, Buffalo (28-3, 16-2), keeps on rolling. They have won eight straight, 26 straight at home, and with a Friday night victory over Bowling Green, set a school single-season record for wins. Bowling Green, just a few weeks ago, seemed like they were on a path to contend with Buffalo for the Mid-American Conference title. But the Falcons (20-11, 12-6) faded down the stretch of the regular season, losing four of their last five.
The Mid-American Conference tourney starts March 11 and concludes March 16.
My top-10
- Gonzaga (29-2)
- Virginia (27-2)
- Duke (26-4)
- Tennessee (27-3)
- North Carolina (25-5)
- Kentucky (25-5)
- Michigan (26-4)
- Texas Tech (25-5)
- Michigan State (24-6)
- Purdue (22-7)
Marquee Matchups
The last Saturday of the regular season is usually reserved for one game which has the word "marquee" written in neon lights: Duke vs North Carolina.
The Blue Devils will once again be without Zion Williamson. At this point, I'm beginning to wonder if Williamson will suit up for Duke again. The Blue Devils are still a pretty solid team without him, but he's quite easily the difference between Duke being a Final Four team or exiting the bracket in the Sweet 16.
If North Carolina wins again tonight, they might be considered a lock for a number one seed in the NCAA tournament. Duke vs North Carolina is at 6 pm (ET) on ESPN.
The Tennessee Volunteers are deserving of a number one seed as well, but they might just be playing themselves out of it. Currently, they trail the Auburn Tigers 69-64 with a little over six minutes left. A loss here would drop the Vols below Kentucky in my rankings. {UPDATE: Vols lose, 84-80. SEC tournament should be pretty exciting, with Tennessee, Kentucky, LSU, Florida, and Auburn all competing, though who knows where the heads of the LSU program is at right now.)
Michigan and Michigan State play at 8 pm (ET) on ESPN, with the losing team dropping out of the hunt for a Big 10 regular season title.
Loyola-Chicago plays in the semi-finals of the MVC tournament against Bradley at 3:30 (ET) on the CBS Sports Network
Teams on the rise
The Florida State Seminoles (24-6, 12-5) started off ACC play losing four of their first five games, nearly wiping out a non-conference slate that saw them losing only once, to Villanova.
Since that horrible stretch and inauspicious start to conference play, Florida State has ripped off victory after victory, losing to only North Carolina . Now ranked 14th in the nation, the Seminoles could be looking at a three or four seed come NCAA tournament time.
A few weeks back, the Utah State Aggies (25-6, 15-3) were on the very fringe of bubble talk. After a victory over Nevada last weekend and follow up win over Colorado State to clinch a share of the Mountain West title, the Aggies look to be firmly entrenched in the tournament.
The one thing possibly holding them back is lack of "big" wins. They defeated Nevada and knocked off a 20-win Saint Mary's team and this light resume might get in their way, especially if they go one-and-down in the Mountain West tournament. Even then, I wouldn't count out Sam Merrill (21 ppg) and this Aggies squad, who have won seven straight.
The last week has been something else for the UCF Knights (23-6, 13-4). Things started out rather nicely with victory at Houston. Then, the Knights followed it up with a victory over the Cincinnati Bearcats. Two victories over ranked teams should do pretty good in cementing a March Madness berth.
Teams falling
Only a few weeks back, the Marquette Golden Eagles (23-7, 12-5) were discussed as a team that could make some noise come March. Three straight losses temporarily put a damper on such hopes. If anything, it's better to get these losses out of the way know, get the bad play out of the system, before tournament play opens.
A loss to a top-10 ranked Michigan team is one thing. But losing to bottom-of-the-conference Penn State is another, which is exactly what the Maryland Terrapins (22-9, 13-7) did last week. Those back-to-back losses dropped Maryland in the rankings and, though they defeated Minnesota, might have dropped from a possible four seed to sixth seed in the process.
The Pac-12 might very well get only one team in this year's tournament, a low for this storied conference. In perfect summation of the Pac-12 season, the Washington Huskies (24-6, 15-2), as soon as they cracked the top-25, they went ahead and lost. They should be in the NCAA tournament, no matter what -- and they've bounced back to win their last two games -- but it says a lot when this conference is almost an afterthought here out west.
photo credit: pixabay.com
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