The 2021 college football closing in on the finish of another season, with the promise of some fresh faces entering playoff consideration.
A chaotic college football season is about to wrap up, with the only thing left to do is put on the final bows for playoff and bowl-game matchups.
If we've learned anything as conference championship weekend approaches, there's still a lot that can happen. The four top-ranked teams could go unchanged as we head into Sunday's official selection.
Or, we could possibly see a major shift, with only one of those top-four teams surviving the weekend.
It's the type of chaos one can embrace, unless you're a fan of the schools involved. Even then, I'd wager part of you embraces the action, chaos, and excitement that comes with this time of year in college football.
College Football Playoff: The top four
A clear-cut favorite to win it all is the top-ranked Georgia Bulldogs (12-0). It's almost a certainty this Bulldog team will advance to the semifinals, as they simply dominated the regular season.
Georgia's closest game was a 10-3 victory over the Clemson Tigers way back at the start of the season. The most points they allowed was 17 (to Tennessee). One of the top defenses of all-time to date, Georgia is allowing only 6.9 points per game while scoring 40.7.
Barring a complete meltdown in the SEC title game against Alabama, the Bulldogs should be safe in earning a spot, even with a close loss.
The Crimson Tide (11-1) have at times completely dominated games while also looking very beatable. Not only did they suffer a loss to Texas A&M, but Alabama had close victories against Auburn (24-22), LSU (a six-point margin), and Arkansas (a seven-point victory). They have a Heisman candidate in Bryce Young and the offense has performed flawless at times but this is one of those rare seasons it's not a guarantee Alabama is in the playoffs.
Head coach Jim Harbaugh has the Michigan Wolverines (11-1) poised to make the semifinals. The 2nd-ranked Wolverines throttled Ohio State last Saturday and their lone loss was a four-point defeat to Michigan State.
And the underdog of the bunch is the undefeated Cincinnati Bearcats (12-0). The Group of Five upstart has delivered all season and have outscored opponents by an average of nearly 24 points per game.
A look at the schedule of conference championship games with playoff implications:
- No. 9 Baylor vs No. 5 Oklahoma State (12/4, Noon ET)
- No. 1 Georgia vs No. 3 Alabama (12/4, 4:00 p.m. ET)
- No. 21 Houston vs No. 4 Cincinnati (12/4, 4:00 p.m. ET)
- No. 2 Michigan vs No. 13 Iowa (12/4, 8:00 p.m. ET)
College Football Playoff scenarios
A victory by Alabama, alongside victories by Michigan and Cincy, would likely mean the top-4 schools won't change, except for seedings.
However, a loss by the Crimson Tide is just one way the door could open for other teams, most notably the fifth-ranked Oklahoma State Cowboys and the sixth-ranked Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
The Cowboys could help themselves with a victory in the Big 12 title game. Some out there believe they could jump Cincinnati, even if the Bearcats win.
Notre Dame is in a holding pattern, thanks both to not having another game and also for former head coach Brian Kelly jumping ship to LSU. The Fighting Irish have reportedly hired their next head coach in defensive coordinator Marcus Freeman, so at least there would be some continuity there that the playoff committee would have to consider.
If Georgia wins and Michigan and Cincy lose along with Alabama, there could be a mad scramble to narrow down the other three teams. This especially could get interesting if Oklahoma State were to lose as well, perhaps opening the door for 7th-ranked Ohio State or 8th-ranked Ole Miss.
Personally, I don't see either of those teams sneaking in. Michigan should still be considered above the Buckeyes, given their head-to-head. Ole Miss likely wouldn't make that leap, either, with losses to Alabama and Auburn.
In this scenario, a two-loss Alabama team would likely get the nod, along with a two-loss Michigan team.
And sorry Pac-12 fans, even if no. 10 Oregon defeats no. 17 Utah, I don't see the Ducks making that huge of a jump.
Predicted final four: (1) Georgia vs (4) Oklahoma State and (2) Michigan vs (3) Cincinnati
Placing the Bearcats as the third-seed is likely a pipe dream but if they defeat Houston on Saturday, they should definitely be in the final four. They have a victory over Notre Dame and have taken care of business as needed.
Notre Dame could sneak in if Oklahoma State loses. Given that the Irish have only given up 23 points over the last four games, they might finally have the defense to make some noise in the semifinals.
Given the implications in games this week, strap in for wild ride as an exciting weekend of games are about to take place.
photo credit: Wikimedia Commons
Comments