Showdown Sunday: One step away from Super Bowl LVII

 

Down to the final four in the 2022-23 NFL season, there's not much surprise as to the teams left standing.

Chalk, or close to it, has been the name of the game in this season's NFL playoffs.

The top seed in the AFC, the Kansas City Chiefs, behind hobbled quarterback Patrick Mahomes (though Chad Henne can certainly cook just fine) are headed to their fifth-straight AFC Championship Game. Impressive, yes, and even more exemplary is the Chiefs have hosted each one.

Kansas City plays hosts to the Cincinnati Bengals, a rematch of the AFC title game from a season ago. The Bengals enter this rematch as the third seed in the AFC and are out prowling to get back to the Super Bowl. Cincy, as the lowest remaining seed, is again in the boat of "one of these things doesn't belong" but that's in seed only. For the second-straight season, the Bengals have been discounted and they have shoved all those doubters to the background. A bit less so this go-around, being the defending AFC champs and all. But, with a depleted offensive line, despite an explosive offense, Cincy was not expected to be this far along.

The same thing can be said about the number two seed in the NFC, the San Francisco 49ers. Powering through the NFC, the Niners have been counted out multiple times across '22-23. Riding a will-imposing defense, San Francisco closed out the regular season with a 10-game winning streak.

All four of these teams have appeared in at least one Super Bowl in the last five years. Two, the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles, each picked up the Lombardi Trophy in this span. There is also plenty of rematch options on the table as far as the title game goes and both games promise to provide thrilling action. 

NFC: San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles

Sunday 1/29/23 at 3 p.m (ET). Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, PA

The Brock Purdy show for the San Francisco rookie quarterback is all the rage. Chosen as Mr. Irrelevant in the 2022 draft, Purdy was tossed into the biblical fire and proceeded to win six games to close the regular season, plus two playoff games. Each week, the world waits for Purdy to fail. It was supposed to happen again last week in the Divisional Round against the Dallas Cowboys, where he would finally face a decent defense.

Purdy responded well, managing San Francisco to a 19-12 victory. Though he did not throw a touchdown pass, Purdy was a breezy 19-29 for 214 yards.

In many ways, his consistent play helped save the 49ers season. An injury to Trey Lance early in the season was one thing but losing reliable Jimmy Garoppolo seemed to spell doom. But an earlier save of the season, thanks to the trade for Panthers star running back Christian McCaffrey, helped keep the offense rolling, despite injuries at various times to George Kittle and Deebo Samuel (which was offset by the career year from Brandon Aiyuk, who had 78 receptions for 1015 yards and eight touchdowns).

The quarterback in green and white on the other sideline is no slouch, as Jalen Hurts entered the MVP conversation in 2022 and landed among the five finalists for the award

Hurts, playing in 15 games, completed 66.5 percent of his passes. He threw for 3701 yards and 22 touchdowns, against only six interceptions.

Adding to his scoring prowess was a nose for the end zone via the ground game. Hurts scored 13 touchdowns and was second on the team with 760 yards.

The Eagles boast two of the top receivers in the NFC with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, who combined for 183 receptions and 2692 yards. The duo also had 18 of the team's 25 receiving touchdowns. 

Philadelphia complements that well with Miles Sanders, who rushed for 1269 yards and 11 touchdowns in '22-23.

These two defenses are pretty evenly matched, finishing first and second in yards allowed per game. They also have two of the top stars in the league with Nick Bosa (18.5 sacks) and Haason Reddick (16). I believe it will come down to San Francisco's running attack. If they are putting together long drives, which they can do with their deep playbook and players who carry the ball, San Francisco will have the edge. The goal is to keep Philadelphia's potent attack, which averages 28 points per game, off the field for extended periods. Do this, and the 49ers will do what they couldn't last season: advance past the NFC Championship Game.

Prediction: San Francisco 20 Philadelphia 17

AFC: Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs

Sunday 1/29/23 at 6:30 p.m. (ET). GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO

A rematch of last year's AFC Championship Game is on the agenda when the Chiefs and Bengals take the field on Sunday.

The Bengals won that game in overtime, 27-24. Cincy also defeated the Chiefs earlier this season by the exact same score, part of an eight-game winning streak by the Bengals to close the regular season.

Focus is on the offense for this team but it's been the defense rising to the occasion. They've been solid all season (20.1 ppg allowed) but have dialed it up a notch as of late, holding opponents to just under 16 points per game over the last six.

This includes a brilliant performance where the Bengals confounded Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills in the Divisional Round, a 27-10 victory.

Joe Burrow has officially cemented himself as a top quarterback of the game, throwing for nearly 4500 yards and 35 touchdown passes. Burrow has the luxury of a top running back in Joe Mixon and two of the top receivers in the AFC with Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. 

Despite missing four games, Chase led the team with 87 receptions and 1046 yards. Chase, along with Higgins and Tyler Boyd, form quite the trio. The three players combined for 219 receptions, 2837 yards, and 21 touchdowns. 

They'll matchup with a Chiefs defense that sits near the middle-of-the-pack but is opportunistic and can force opponents in mistakes. Linebacker Nick Bolton finished second in the NFL in tackles (180) and defensive lineman Chris Jones posted 15.5 sacks.

The story in Kansas City, which won 10 of their last 11 to close out the regular season, again belongs to the offense. Though Tyreek Hill left to Miami, Mahomes still managed to throw for 5250 yards and 41 touchdowns, while running for another four in leading Kansas City to the top scoring team (29.2 ppg). A stable of receivers helped replace Hill's production, along with another fine season from Travis Kelce.

Kelce finished with 110 catches for 1338 yards and 12 touchdown receptions, including a four-touchdown performance in a Monday night victory over the Raiders. 

Kansas City also added to the mix a solid ground game in the form of rookie running back Isiah Pacheco (830 yards, 4.9 ypc).

This one is going to come down to whichever defense comes up with a big play or two. Expect another close game between these two heavyweights. The Bengals have won three straight meetings against the Chiefs and I believe they will make it four come Sunday.

Prediction: Cincinnati Bengals 31 Kansas City Chiefs 27

Photo credit: Wikimedia Commons

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