A competitive 2022-23 season for the Mountain West Conference men's basketball teams comes to a close March 8-11, with multiple teams looking to expand their NCAA tourney resume.
Back in January and into early February, there was talk of the Mountain West Conference possibly sending five teams to the NCAA tourney. A strong non-conference slate plus a solid start to conference had plenty of programs feeling good.
Life in college basketball can flip in one-tenth of second, let alone with weeks to play on the schedule.
Now, with the conference tournament ready to tip-off, the Mountain West may need things to break just right to place four teams in the Big Dance.
A competitive regular season ended with a ranked team and two others receiving votes. For the most part, the top four teams in the league lost only to each other, with the fifth place and sixth place teams sneaking in a few victories.
There were surprises, to be sure, and some rankings have four Mountain West teams safely in the NCAA tournament, no matter their result in the coming days. But, March can be a cruel mistress (and so can the selection committee) so it's going to be a long few days of speculation and game-watching to find out what happens.
To me, the conference tourney needs to go chalk to the semis to give the Mountain West the best chance at receiving four bids to match last season's total. The Boise State Broncos, San Diego State Aztecs, Colorado State Rams, and Wyoming Cowboys all notched bids in last year's dance.
Two of those teams in the Broncos and Aztecs should return this season with no debate. Let's hope, whether it's three teams or four who receive bids, they have better success than a year ago, where the Mountain West went 0-4 in the NCAA tournament.
Top contenders
The path to the title goes through the nation's 20th-ranked team San Diego Aztecs (24-6, 15-3).
But by no means will an Aztec tournament title be assumed, given the talent that resides in this conference, including the top four teams.
San Diego State is a team that regularly plays nine players and has the deepest bench in the Mountain West. All nine average at least 6.6 points per game and it's a nice balance between backcourt and frontcourt propelling the Aztecs.
Depth has allowed Matt Bradley to carry less of the load, though he remains the team's leading scorer at 13.2 points per game. Darrion Trammell (9.8 ppg) and Lamont Butler (8.5 ppg) are two talented guards, with Butler averaging 3.3 assists. And sharpshooter Adam Seiko shoots 50 percent from three-point range.
But it is a fearsome foursome of forwards who make this team complete. These four players combine to score 26.7 points per game and all are shooting over 50 percent from the field. They also average 18.6 rebounds and have the Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year in Nathan Mensah, who averages 1.5 blocks per game.
San Diego State averages 72.9 points and holds opponents to 64.4. Opponents only shoot 42.1 percent from the field and 29.8 percent from deep.
One team that rivals the Aztecs on the defensive side is the Boise State Broncos (23-8, 13-5). The Broncos hold opponents to similar numbers from the field (41.2) and three-point range (30.2). Boise State's scoring is similar, too, with the Broncos averaging 72.1 to opponents' 63.7.
Depth is a concern for Boise State. All five starters handle the majority of the scoring, with four of five averaging double figures. Max Rice (14.4 ppg) and Tyson Degenhart (14.3 ppg) lead the way, with Rice hitting 45 percent of his three-point attempts.
Marcus Shaver Jr. does a bit of everything in filling up the box score. He averages 13.3 points, 5.9 rebounds, and 3.8 assists per game. Chibuzo Agbo (11.5 ppg) has been a nice addition and Naje Smith is an x-factor that makes this team tick.
Boise State's best chance at repeating as champion depends on how their bench plays. Two players regularly contribute but the Broncos need an additional player to rise to the occasion.
The Utah State Aggies (24-7, 13-5) certainly have risen to the occasion, winning five straight (all by double figures) and seemingly playing themselves off the bubble.
The Aggies are a fast-paced team (79.1 ppg) and, when shooting lights out, are as dangerous as any team in this conference. They are a little like fools gold, though, because many times this season cold-shooting nights have turned into frigid ones and they don't have the defense to consistently overcome that in games.
A solid core powers Utah State, with five players scoring in double figures. Steven Ashworth is an expert marksman (45 percent from deep) and averages 16.3 points and 4.7 assists per game.
Taylor Funk (13.2 ppg, 5.4 rpg) provides a nice inside/outside game, with Dan Akin shooting 66.5 percent in averaging 12.1 ppg. Max Shuga (12.1 ppg) and Sean Bairstow (10.5 ppg) round out this top-scoring bunch.
One of Utah State's conference losses this season was to the Nevada Wolf Pack (22-9, 12-6), who enter the Mountain West tournament having lost three of their last five games.
Nevada boasts one of the best trios in the conference, consisting of Jarod Lucas, Kenan Blackshear, and Will Baker. Lucas averages 16.9 points per game, with Blackshear contributing 14.4 and Baker 13.9.
All three can shoot the 3-point ball but Blackshear is only at 27.9 percent. Baker, as a big man, helps spread the court, with a field goal percentage of 56.3 while connecting on 36.2 of his attempts from deep.
Freshman Darrion Williams is a valuable fourth wheel of the triangle, notching 7.5 points and 7.4 rebounds per game.
These four programs are the favorites entering the conference tournament but discount the next three seeds as possible dark horses to win the tournament.
Underdog title hopes
The most surprising team of this year's conference is the San Jose State Spartans (19-12, 10-8). A leap was expected this season for the Spartans but not from worst a year ago (1-17 in conference) to a fifth-place finish in '22-23.
San Jose State played consistent all season and boast the Mountain West Player of the Year in Omari Moore. Moore averages 17.5 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 4.7 assists per game in helping lead the Spartans to victories over top-four teams Boise State and Utah State.
Moore is one of six Spartans who average at least 6.1 points per game and is coming off a 33-point effort on March 4 at Air Force. San Jose State has a huge advantage on the glass, too, outrebounding opponents by more than eight rebounds per game. Robert Vaihola, Ibrahima Diallo, and Sage Tolbert III all average over six rebounds, with Tolbert pulling down 7.3 per game.
Vaihola and Diallo combine to average 14 points per game, with Vaihola shooting 73.2 percent.
One team that can match-up inside with San Jose State is the New Mexico Lobos. The Lobos have Morris Udeze (16.4 ppg, 9.2 rebounds) and Josiah Allick (8.1/7.3) to counter most teams in the frontcourt and both are shooting above 50 percent from the field.
New Mexico also has two talented guards in Jamal Mashburn Jr. (19.5 ppg) and Jaelen House (16.8 ppg, 4.7 assists). These four power the Lobos to 81.2 points per game but behind them significant depth and experience is hard to find. A 14-0 start to the season is almost a distant memory for the Lobos, who have lost seven of nine.
UNLV enters the tournament having lost four of six, but the Rebels did defeat Nevada 69-67 last Saturday. They swept the Wolf Pack this season and played many of the top teams close throughout the season.
The Rebels can put a nice stretch together to win this tournament but size prevents a problem as UNLV is a guard-heavy team. EJ Harkless leads the way, averaging 18.6 points per game, though he only shoots 28 percent from deep. Keshon Gilbert (11.5 ppg), Luis Rodriquez (10.9 ppg), and Justin Webster (46.3 percent on three-point attempts) help carry the load.
Though the remaining teams not mentioned have long odds to win the tournament, don't discount them making a run. This is mostly due to each have an individual player that can take over a game.
For Colorado State, that player is Isaiah Stevens. Stevens averages 17.9 points and 6.8 assists per game. Across the border in Wyoming, who picked up wins over Nevada and New Mexico, Hunter Maldonado (14.8 ppg, 5.4 reb., and 4.1 assists) is the player who can carry a team to victory.
With Air Force, it's about a style of play and hard-nosed defense but Jake Heidbreder (14.8 ppg, 49.2 percent from the field) can get hot and take over a game. And Fresno State has Jemarl Baker (12.8 ppg), who is coming off a 43-point effort against Chicago State.
First day schedule
Action in this year's tournament begins March 8 in Las Vegas. All times Eastern.
- #9 Fresno State Bulldogs (11-19) vs #8 Colorado State Rams (14-17) 2 p.m.
- #10 Air Force Falcons (14-17) vs #7 UNLV Rebels (18-12) 4:30 p.m.
- #11 Wyoming Cowboys (9-21) vs #6 New Mexico Lobos (21-10) 7 p.m.
Colorado State swept Fresno State, with wins by 22 and 3. UNLV defeated Air Force in the lone meeting between the teams, snagging a 54-53 victory. New Mexico lost to Wyoming by 14 at home and won by 1 on the road.
The title game is set for March 11 at 6 p.m. on CBS and Paramount+.
photo credit: Wikimedia Commons
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