The Final Four is set for the 2023 men's NCAA tournament, with four solid, if not surprising, programs ready to tip-off the closing weekend of the season.
The 2023 men's NCAA Final Four is a classic case of "one of these things is not like the other".
In this instance, it is the UConn Huskies who are the odd ducks out. Not because of anything this current team has done to earn that moniker. No, it's because this is a program who has been in this position before (six Final Four appearances), with four titles to their name, the last coming in a 2014 victory over the Kentucky Wildcats.
The Florida Atlantic Owls, San Diego State Aztecs, and Miami Hurricanes have a combined zero Final Four appearances between them. Miami head coach Jim Larrañaga has been here before, leading George Mason on a magical Cinderella run back in 2006.
All four teams, in one way or another, could consider their run to this season's Final Four a "Cinderella" run. The top 12 seeds of the tourney have all bowed out, with the highest remaining the Huskies at a no. 4 seed. Toss in a couple of no. 5 seeds and a no. 9 (FAU), and what's left is a season of chaos coming to fruition.
Each team, though, deserves to be here, with the victories and confidence to back them up. All bring their own strengths and weaknesses but all are ready to cut down the nets come Monday evening.
(9) Florida Atlantic Owls vs (5) San Diego State Aztecs
Watching the Florida Atlantic Owls (35-3) during this tournament, it's clear they can adjust their style of play to their opponents. Up-and-down the court, with quick shots and speedy play? Yep, this was evident against Fairleigh Dickinson. Or slow it down and get dirty in the metaphorical mud? Yep, looking at the Tennessee game for this one.
Entering this Final Four meeting with the Aztecs, the Owls own an 11-game winning streak. Florida Atlantic has won their four tourney games by a combined 19 points and has consistently found ways to close games strong.
They carry a deep bench, perhaps rivaled among the Final Four teams by only San Diego State. The Owls overcame another Markquis Nowell gem (30 points, 12 assists, 5 steals) to defeat Kansas State 79-76 in the Elite Eight.
Florida Atlantic gets production from many different avenues. Johnell Davis is averaging 17.3 points this tournament and nearly eight rebounds, though Davis is only 3-16 from three-point range.
Alijah Martin (12.5 points per game in the tourney) is slightly better from deep at 8-21, with the Owls going 34-109 the last four games. And Madislav Goldin, who scored only 17 points in the first three games, notched 14 against Kansas State.
Goldin is averaging 8.3 rebounds for a Florida Atlantic team that is +32 in that department for the tournament, thanks in part to a +22 advantage over K-State.
The Owls have a tournament average of 71.3 points, holding opponents to 66.5. That's the exact number the San Diego State Aztecs (31-6) are putting up. The main difference? San Diego State's defense is giving up only 57.3 points per game.
It's a defense, already outstanding, that is only getting better. In eight games since their last loss, to Boise State, the Aztecs have held opponents to under 60 points in six of those games.
Opponents are only 16-94 from three-point range in this tournament against the Aztecs and San Diego State holds a +18 edge on the boards.
Like the Owls, the Aztecs have nine players who play regular minutes and each one can go off any given night. Their leading scorer Matt Bradley had 17 in the opening round but has only scored 18 points since. Bradley is 6-27 from the field the last three games, including only 1-10 from beyond the arc.
Darrion Trammell has stepped the last three games, scoring 46 points. And Nathan Mensah doesn't score much (20 points the last four games) but is a highlight on defense. Mensah has 27 rebounds and 12 blocks in this year's tournament.
The most interesting match-up between these teams could come down to Mensah and Goldin. Whoever wins that battle in the interior will be the difference as to which team advances.
Florida Atlantic vs San Diego State. 4/1 @ 6:09 p.m. (ET) on CBS
(5) Miami Hurricanes vs (4) UConn Huskies
If there is one team that has the ability to keep pace with the Huskies, it is the Miami Hurricanes.
Of course, the same was thought about the Gonzaga Bulldogs, who only scored 54 in a 28-point loss.
Miami (29-7), after only scoring 63 in their first round victory over Drake, has scored 85, 89, and 88 points in their last three games. The latest, the Hurricanes 88-81 victory over Texas, involved a second-half comeback in which they were down by 13 points.
After shooting only 30.4 percent from the field against Drake, the 'Canes have incrementally been better. A 48.6 percent effort against Indiana was followed by 51.7 against Houston and 59.2 percent in the Texas game.
Miami has made 26 three-pointers in the tournament but attempted only eight against the Longhorns, making two.
It was the Jordan Miller show in that victory. Miller scored 27 points, making all seven of his field goal attempts and draining 13-13 from the line. After only scoring seven against Drake, Miller has dropped 59 in his last three games, shooting 70 percent from the field.
ACC Player of the Year Isaiah Wong also struggled in that Drake game (1-10 from the field, five points) but has scored 61 since.
Nijel Pack and Norchad Omier have been the most consistent Miami players in the tourney. Pack has 74 points (13-29 from deep) and Omier has been a beast on the boards, collecting 53. Omier is also averaging nearly 11 points per game.
Firepower is plentiful with Miami, as it is with the UConn Huskies (29-8). The Huskies are averaging 81.8 points while allowing opponents a shade under 60, at 59.3. And they have the inside and perimeter game to match Miami, creating interesting looks across both teams.
Adama Sanogo may face his stiffest test yet going against Omier. So far, Sanogo has been up to all challenges in averaging 20 points and nearly 10 rebounds during this tournament. He also has five blocked shots and dished out six assists in the victory over Gonzaga.
Jordan Hawkins is the deep threat to keep an eye on. Hawkins has scored 69 points and is 16-31 from three-point range.
The player who makes everything run smooth on the court is Andre Jackson Jr. Jackson has 31 points and 28 rebounds but it is passing where he thrives. He's dished out 31 assists to only six turnovers in this game.
A track meet is expected between these two teams. Slowing down UConn is something that hasn't been done yet and the Huskies are adept at sharing the ball (82 assists). Miami's lack of depth may come back to haunt them but if they can slow down UConn at all, watch out.
Miami Hurricanes vs UConn Huskies, 4/1 @ 8:49 p.m. (ET) on CBS
All the signs, and many of the experts, are predicting the Huskies to walk away champions the night of April 3. For good reason, too, especially based on the run they've put together the last few weeks.
To this end, they seem like a very viable option. I, however, am going to let my Mountain West bias (and belief of "Defense Wins Championships") guide the way and go with the San Diego State Aztecs being crowned victors.
Championship prediction: San Diego State 66 UConn 64
photo credit: Wikimedia Commons
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