To close things down and secure one of those spots, Boise State (19-9, 105) will need to be at their best.
Good fortune and execution paved the way last week, with the Broncos winning two games by a combined eight points. It was nice seeing Boise State shake off that tough overtime loss to Nevada in winning close games. A Dani Bayes three-pointer with 12 seconds left gave the Broncos the deciding basket, with Natalie Pasco adding two free throws for a 58-55 victory last Wednesday. And on Saturday, Boise State held off a spirited Fresno State Bulldogs effort, winning 70-65.
Tatum Thompson impressed last week, scoring 30 points in the two wins. Pasco had 20 against Fresno State but struggled against New Mexico for a second time this season, shooting only 4-19 from the field (and Pasco is only 5-30 this season against the Lobos).
Boise State has won six of their last seven games, rising to second place in the process. A strong rise and yet, faltering down the stretch could drop the Broncos into the opening round of the Mountain West tourney.
A 1-1 week should have the Broncos locked into a top-5 spot. The Nevada Wolf Pack have a tough week, with road games at Colorado State and New Mexico. The Lobos also host San Diego State while Wyoming is at San Jose State and hosts Fresno State.
This is just a small sample of the games on the schedule. If things shake out the right way, Boise State will head into the final regular season game knowing a first round bye is secure. But first, two games this week to keep the good times rolling.
Boise State @ UNLV
A big game for the Broncos when they try to prove their mettle against the first place (and 24th-ranked) UNLV Lady Rebels (24-2, 14-1). UNLV has already clinched the regular season title and will look to extend their nine-game winning streak on Wednesday (2/28, 7:30 p.m. MT).
Boise State has lost six in a row to the Lady Rebels, falling in Boise earlier this season by a score of 84-63. Entering that game, the Broncos had won four in row. Boise State came out in defensive lockdown mode but struggled with their offense. By time they got rolling in a second half, the game was essentially out of reach.
The Broncos had only eight turnovers in that first meeting but shot 38.3 percent from the field. Their normally stellar defense took a hit in the second half, too, but a lot of that was due to energy expended on offense. Pasco had 21 points and 4 assists that game. Mya Hansen, who missed last week's game against New Mexico but returned to face Fresno State, scored 12 and Abby Muse had nine points, seven rebounds, and four blocked shots.
Likely Mountain West MVP Desi Rae Young had 25 points and 11 rebounds that game. Young averages 19 points and 9.6 rebounds.
Alyssa Durazo-Frescas had 16 points (4 threes) and Ashley Scoggin added 14. The Broncos did do a good job against Kiara Jackson, who scored only one point and had six assists. Jackson averages 11.4 and 4.7 in those categories.
Eight players scored at least five points per game for UNLV. During their winning streak, the Lady Rebels have held every opponent to under 70 points.
It's going to take a complete team effort in this game. If Boise State plays the type of defense they played in the first half, coupled with their second half offense, they can pull off the upset. If not, well, Saturday's game takes on extra importance.
Boise State vs Air Force
Saturday's game (3/2 at 2 p.m. MT) will be the final home game for Boise State, where they will be facing the Air Force Falcons (13-16, 6-10) for the first time this season.
The Broncos won both meetings in 2022-23, winning by five points each time.
Air Force has lost four of six and face the Utah State Aggies on Wednesday before closing out their regular season Saturday in Boise. Three of their six conference victories have come against the likes of Nevada, San Diego State, and Colorado State.
The Falcons average 63 points per game. They shoot 37.9 percent from the field and 30.5 percent from deep. Air Force averages 14.8 turnovers per game but they do have a harassing defense collecting 11.2 steals.
Milahnie Perry leads the team with 16.5 points and 2.7 assists per game. Perry shoots 35.5 percent from beyond the arc and has 15 straight games of scoring in double figures. She is a volume shooter, often tossing up between 14 and 20 attempts per game, and was 9-39 from the field in her last two games.
Perry also had a three-game stretch in early February where she averaged 26 points per game.
Madison Smith averages 11.4 points and is the top shooter from the field at 41.9 percent. Smith also averages 5.2 rebounds and 2.2 steals per contest.
Jayda McNabb averages 6.1 points and 6.3 rebounds per game.
Air Force is no slouch and should not be taken lightly by the Broncos. With the game at home, where the Broncos are 13-2, and the added bonus of Senior Day, Boise State should take care of business. Win number 20, if not reached at UNLV, will be a perfect fit to send off the seniors in their last home game.
Then, with only one game left at Colorado State, the madness of March can truly begin.
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