On the other hand, playing in their fourth Super Bowl in the last five seasons means Kansas City is anything but an underdog. They are defending Super Bowl champions and fit into the role of favorite like extra whipped cream on top of a milkshake.
The 49ers, too, are familiar in the role of favorite. This franchise, for all its glory in the 1980s and 90s, has lacked recent success in the Big Game, losing in their last two appearances. But it's not like they've been toiling away in the dredges of the NFL, appearing in four NFC Championship games the last five seasons.
Is it possible neither team fits the role of true underdog? To be determined but it's a certainty neither team is David taking on Goliath.
A rematch of Super Bowl LIV, where Kansas City defeated San Francisco 31-20, is set for February 11 live in the city that never sleeps. Familiar faces on both sides of the ball will take the field at Allegiant Field, where two teams will showcase that what happens in Las Vegas doesn't have to stay there.
Kansas City
The Patrick Mahomes Show remained solid in 2023-24, though co-stars did have some trouble enjoying the limelight. There was brilliance at times by Mahomes, steady production in most weeks, and all told, a ho-hum season by our high standards set for him.
Despite struggles that saw Kansas City (11-6) earn "only" the third-seed in the AFC, they overcame and left behind teams like the Buffalo Bills, Baltimore Ravens, and more who were supposed to dethrone the reigning champs.
Mahomes has used another stellar postseason to propel Kansas City to the Super Bowl, with a good chance to repeat as champs after last year's victory over the Philadelphia Eagles.
In three postseason games this year, Mahomes has yet to throw an interception (and hasn't thrown a postseason pick since the 2021-22 season). He's thrown for 718 yards, completing 68 percent of his passes with four touchdowns. Mahomes has also been sacked twice and rushed for 75 yards.
This follows a somewhat pedestrian regular season by his standards. Mahomes had the second lowest totals in yards (4183) and touchdown passes (27) since becoming a full-time starter. Pretty impressive numbers nonetheless, adding 389 rushing yards.
Part of the problem was the supposed decline of tight end Travis Kelce and a receiving corps that really had no consistent threat outside of Rashee Rice (and tons of dropped passes, too).
Kelce did have his struggles, finishing the regular season with 984 yards (lowest since 2015) and five touchdown receptions (lowest since 2019). The playoffs have been a different beast, however, with Kelce hauling in 23 catches for 262 yards and three touchdowns. In the AFC Championship game, Kelce had 11 catches for 116 yards and a score.
The rookie Rice got off to a slow start but finished with 79 catches for 938 yards and seven touchdowns. He has 20 receptions in the playoffs and combined, Rice and Kelce have seen 52 of the 91 targets by Mahomes.
Justin Watson and Marquez Valdes-Scantling were both vilified in the regular season but have come up with clutch grabs at various times in the postseason. One of these players, or Mecole Hardman or Kadarius Toney (if he plays), could be x-factors in this Super Bowl.
So, too, could a game plan centered on running back Isiah Pacheco, who rushed for 935 yards in the regular season. Pacheco has added 254 and three touchdowns in the postseason.
The true core of Kansas City is a hard-nosed defense that doesn't receive tons of accolades. The unit finished 2nd in yards allowed and second in points against this season. This postseason, Kansas City has held opponents to just under 14 points per game.
There is really no weakness on this unit that had 57 sacks, eight interceptions, and nine fumble recoveries. Up front, they'll be without Charles Omenihu but have George Karlaftis and Chris Jones, who each finished with 10.5 sacks
The secondary doesn't have tons of picks but Justin Reid (95 tackles), Trent McDuffie (80 tackles, 7 PD, 3 sacks), and L'Jarius Snead are some of the best in the game.
Linebacker Nick Bolton's 27 tackles are tops in the playoffs.
Kansas City's defense really has been an unsung hero in Kansas City's success in '23-24. On the other side of the field is another defense helping lead the way.
San Francisco 49ers
Boasting one of the league's best (and deepest) defenses in the regular season, San Francisco seemed to be in the perfect situation to succeed. Then the playoffs saw some leaks in the damn.
A team that was third in opponent scoring this season, San Francisco has given up 52 points in two playoff games. While there have been some breakdowns in the passing game, a main culprit has been opponents rushing the ball to the tune of 159 yards per game. (Though, to be fair, they were much better in the second half of the NFC Championship game against the Detroit Lions.)
The defense was eighth-best in yards allowed and had 48 sacks in the regular season, led by Nick Bosa's 10.5. The real number that stands out is 22 interceptions, set up by a scheme where both linebackers and secondary are ballhawks.
Leading tackler Fred Warner (132 tackles) had four interceptions. Charvarius Ward picked off five balls and Deommadore Lenoir added three. The latter two combined for 156 tackles in the regular season.
Dre Greenlaw is also a tackling machine (120) and has two postseason interceptions.
While the defense stands out, the offense is certainly no slouch. The unit has been streaky. In starting the season 5-0, San Francisco scored 30+ points in all five games. They then followed that up with three straight losses, scoring 17 in each and that alternating success happened throughout the regular season as they finished 12-5.
Running back Christian McCaffrey had an MVP-type regular season, finishing with 1459 rushing yards, 564 receiving yards and 21 total touchdowns. His usage rate has continued in two playoff games, with 188 rushing yards, 72 in the air, and four total touchdowns.
San Francisco's receiving corps is deeper than Kansas City's. The 49ers have three solid receivers who can get the job done, plus tight end George Kittle. Kittle has somewhat of a quiet postseason compared to Kelce, with six catches for 108 yards and a score. But he finished the regular season with 1020 yards on 65 receptions.
The true breakout was Brandon Aiyuk, who built on his success of 22-23. Aiyuk finished with 75 receptions for 1342 yards and seven touchdowns. Deebo Samuel added 60 catches for 892 yards.
Samuel is the leading receiver in the playoffs, hauling in ten receptions. Aiyuk and Jauan Jennings each have six.
The real unknown is that of quarterback Brock Purdy. Purdy has enjoyed quite the success in his first two seasons but been a little jumpy this postseason. His completion percentage is 61.4 (down from 69.4) and he's thrown for 519 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception. This after a regular season in which Purdy was All-Pro worthy, throwing for 4280 yards and 31 touchdowns against only 11 interceptions.
All the stars seemed to have aligned for San Francisco but ultimately their success will hinge on the measured play of Purdy.
Prediction
Super Bowls can be a little tricky to predict, especially when it comes to a final score. Two years ago, I was way off. Last year, I was closer in at least predicting the winner and final margin (two was my guess, with three the final margin). But my final score was way off in terms of points scored.
This year, looking at two defenses that will keep the game close but not so bad as the New England vs Los Angeles Rams Super Bowl. Nor do I think we see a shootout with both teams dropping points in the mid-to-high 30s. The edge in position breakdown is slightly in Kansas City's favor, especially at what is a shaky kicker position for San Francisco. But I think the 49ers do enough to shut down the Mahomes-Kelce connection and finally reach the top of the mountain for the first time since 1995.
San Francisco 27 Kansas City 24
photo credit: Wikimedia Commons
More on Super Bowls:
- Super Bowl history: The good, the bad, & the yawners
- A little side of fun on Super Bowl Sunday
- Super Bowl LVII preview
- Super Bowl LVI preview
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