Is any other program going to step up and dethrone the champs?
UNLV (27-2, 17-1) after running the conference table in 2022-23, did lose a conference game this season, falling to the New Mexico Lobos. And while the Lady Rebels can score in bunches, there are teams who can use their defense to pull off the upset. Wyoming lost two games to UNLV by a combined 10 points and Colorado State did the same by eight. Boise State nearly had an upset, losing by six, and the Lobos lost by six in their second meeting.
In March basketball, anything is possible. But plenty of signs point to UNLV claiming the title yet again.
UNLV enters the tournament on a 12-game winning streak, scoring 90+ points in four of their last six games. To close out the regular season and wrapping up the title, the Lady Rebels won their last two games by an average of 59.5 points.
On the season, UNLV averages 80.1 points per game and pulls down 41.5 rebounds. Their defense is just as efficient, with 16 straight games of holding opponents under 70 points.
Eight players average five points or more per game, led by likely conference MVP Desi-Rae Young. Young averages 18.6 points and nine rebounds per game, shooting 56.7 percent from the field.
Point guard Kiara Jackson is effective across the board, averaging 11.1., 4.4 rebounds, and 4.7 assists per game. And freshman Amarachi Kimpson (8.4 ppg) closed strong, with 26 points, 12 assists, and five steals in the last two games.
The Lady Rebels have the makings of winning the title and perhaps even snaking a victory in the NCAA tournament. But if there is a hiccup, a handful of teams are ready to pounce.
MW tourney contenders
Teams that finished second through seventh spent the season beating up on each other, with the final order in this group not decided until the final night of regular season play. While seeds eight through 11 did manage victories against this group, the six seeds here are best positioned to knock off UNLV.
The Boise State Broncos (19-12, 10-8) closed the season on a three-game losing streak, dropping them to the sixth-seed. Facing now an extra day of play in achieving title hopes, the Broncos hope they can keep their solid defense and find consistent play on offense to win their first title since 2019-20.
Boise State averages 63.2 points per game and shoots 39.6 percent from the field. The Broncos often find good looks, so in many cases it's just a matter of converting those chances at a higher clip. Their defense is impressive on most nights, paced by strong interior play and the shot blocking skills of Abby Muse (2.8 per game).
Scoring leader Natalie Pasco (13.4 ppg) has struggled during the losing streak. Pasco has scored only 13 points on 5-28 shooting in this span, with opponents have placed more focus on her.
The Broncos are deep, with eight players scoring at least four points per game. Mya Hansen averages 9.3 and has 46 points, 8 assists, and four steals the last three games.
Boise State swept the season series over the New Mexico Lobos (21-10, 12-6), who hold the second seed. New Mexico enters the tournament having won five of seven, with those two losses coming by a combined four points. All of New Mexico's conference losses have come by less than 10 points.
The Lobos are paced by Nyah Wilson, who averages 15.3 points and 4.6 rebounds per game. Wilson is coming off a 33-point, six-rebound, and six-assist game against Fresno State and scored in double figures in all but one conference game.
Sliding into the third spot, the Wyoming Cowgirls (16-13, 11-7) enter the conference tournament having lost five of seven, with all losses against teams seeded two through seven. On the season, Wyoming scores 63.2 points and shoots 45.3 percent from the field (though only 30 percent from deep).
Six players average at least five points per game for the Cowgirls, led by Allyson Fertig. Fertig averages 13.6 points, 8.1 rebounds, and 1.3 blocked shots per game. She is coming off three straight double-doubles, averaging 18.7 points and 10 rebounds.
The next three teams all finished with a conference record of 10-8. The team with the hottest play as of late is the no. 5 seed Colorado State Rams. Colorado State has won four of five, including an emphatic win over Boise State on Senior Night. Their lone loss in this span, however, was to San Jose State (7-23, 2-16).
The Rams score 69.3 points per game and shoot 36.3 percent from three-point range. Seven players average five or more points per game, led by senior guard McKenna Hofschild. Hofschild averages 22.6 points, 4 rebounds, and 7.3 assists per game and is one player who I can see winning MW Player of the Year over Young.
Ahead of the Rams in the fourth spot is the Nevada Wolf Pack. Nevada enters the tournament losers of three of five. Five of their conference wins have come by three points or loss, and one of their losses was to Utah State (5-24, 2-16).
The Wolf Pack averages 64.6 points and shoots 38.2 percent from the field. Nevada's leading scorer is Audrey Roden, who scores 11.3 per game (but only shoots 25.3 percent on three-point attempts). Roden has struggled in her last three games, scoring only seven points on 1-14 shooting.
Rounding out this group of contenders, the San Diego Aztecs hold the seventh seed and have lost two of their last three games. One was a three-point loss to New Mexico, while the Aztecs also fell to UNLV by 59.
San Diego State can score with the best of them, averaging 66.5 points per game (shooting 41.1 percent from the field. Four players average 10+ points for the Aztecs, with the efforts of Adryana Quezada and Kim Villalobos combining to average 24.9 points and 12.7 rebounds per game.
These six teams stand the best chance at dethroning UNLV but there is one team who, if all the chips fall right, could make a run at the title.
Dark horse
With the eighth seed, not a lot of stock is being placed in the Air Force Falcons (15-16, 8-10). The Falcons may not look like a formidable opponent, but they enter the conference tourney on a three-game winning streak.
Air Force swept four games from the Aggies and Spartans, with their other four conference wins coming against the list of contenders above. Their latest achievement was a road win over the Broncos.
The Falcons score 63.9 points per game. They do have trouble with depth and rebounding (32.2 per game). Shooting can be a struggle at times, where Air Force shoots 38.5 percent from the field.
But they can warm up quickly, and use that to their advantage. Guard Milahnie Perry averages 16.8 points and 2.7 assists per game. Perry, in her last two games, scored 43 points on 16-29 of shooting.
Perry, too, can find herself in a cold streak. The two games prior, Perry scored 24 points on 9-39 shooting. But the good outweighs the bad, where Perry has 17 straight games scoring in double figures, scoring 20+ in eight conference games.
Guard Madison Smith is also a big contributor, scoring 11.5 points and pulling down 5.3 rebounds.
It might be a stretch for Air Force to win four games in four days. But if they are underestimated and can get locked in, it's not entirely out of the realm of possibility.
Upcoming schedule
Opening round games get started on Sunday March 10, with the championship game set for Wednesday March 13 (7:30 PT)
*All times below Pacific Time
- #8 Air Force Falcons vs #9 Fresno State Bulldogs - 2 p.m.
- #7 San Diego State Aztecs vs #10 San Jose State Spartans - 4:30 p.m.
- #6 Boise State Broncos vs #11 Utah State Aggies - 7 p.m.
Byes: UNLV, New Mexico, Wyoming, Nevada, Colorado State
photo credit: Flickr
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