While seeing top seeds fall happens in the bigger conferences, mid-majors for the most part follow the script and top teams advance.
Teams blew up that notion in 2024, causing movement among bubble teams and sending teams thought to be safe barely making the tournament. (Or staying at home altogether.)
It's March. It's madness. And time for another season of the NCAA men's tournament.
In the end, play-in games were handed to teams with NET rankings better than 30. Blueblood schools from power conferences were given shots of the undeserved variety. And a Big East conference considered by many metrics to be the second-best conference in the nation is sending only three schools to the Big Dance
These schools are the cream crop, with a one, two, and three seed spread across the regions. The Big 12 and SEC top the list of conferences with multiple bids, walking away with 8 bids each. They were followed by the Big Ten and Mountain West with six each and the ACC with five. The Pac-12 secured four, while the American, the Atlantic 10, and WCC all have two.
Per usual, arguments about which teams should be in, which shouldn't, and bad seedings by the committee will dominate the news cycle for the next 24 hours. About the only consensus among most is that the Connecticut Huskies are most deserving the tournament's overall no. 1 seed.
Top seeds
The defending champion Connecticut Huskies (31-3) might be the only ones not surprised to be back in this position. Many figured they'd be good this season but had a lot to replace from last season's championship team.
UConn proved the prognosticators wrong and earned the top overall seed heading into this year's tournament.
The Huskies were the only team of the four top seeds to win their conference tournament, extending their winning streak to seven. Two of their losses came in conference play, to Seton Hall by 15 and Creighton by 19 (concerning in both losses were by double digits but both were on the road). The third loss was in non-conference play, where the Huskies lost to Kansas by four.
Intriguing in the East Region for UConn is a possible second round matchup with one of last season's tournament darlings, the Florida Atlantic Owls (who enter as a no. 8 seed).
Over in the South Region, the Houston Cougars (30-4) hold the top seed. Houston has made deep runs in recent years, so the seeding is not unfamiliar. In their first year in the Big 12, I wondered how they'd fare and the Cougars responded with an outstanding regular season, holding the top spot in the nation off-and-on throughout.
The Cougars began the season 14-0 and all four losses were to conference teams. Houston lost to Iowa State twice (by four points, then in the conference tourney by 28). Other losses were to NCAA tourney teams TCU (by 1) and Kansas (by 13).
A possible road to the title for Houston could include playing Big Ten teams in back-to-back rounds (Nebraska in second round, Wisconsin in Sweet 16).
Out of the Big Ten, the Purdue Boilermakers (29-4) could have the most to prove. Star Zach Edey came back exactly for this reason. In the last two tournaments, Purdue has seen their season end early by upstart Cinderella teams. In 2022, it was a loss in the Sweet 16 to no. 15 seed Saint Peters. And last season, it was an even bigger shocker, losing to no. 16 seed Fairleigh Dickinson.
Three of Purdue's losses were to tournament teams and all were to conference opponents. Purdue lost by four to Ohio State and Northwestern. There was also a 16-point loss to Nebraska and one-point loss to Wisconsin in the conference tournament.
Not that Purdue wants to look ahead but a Sweet 16 matchup with former foe for Edey in Hunter Dickinson (who could be out with an injury) and Kansas.
The fourth no. 1 seed belongs to the North Carolina Tar Heels (27-7). UNC has played some up-and-down ball over the course of the season despite their record. The ACC had a bit of a down year but the Tar Heels only lost three times in the conference regular season. They fell to Georgia Tech, Clemson, and Syracuse, plus NC State in the ACC tourney title game. UNC also lost to UConn and Kentucky in non-conference play.
UNC does have an experienced group, with players still on the team who helped UNC get to the championship game in 2022.
Hallowed 5 vs 12 matchups
Number five seeds probably want to avoid this slot while no. 12 seeds embrace it. That's the psychological effect this tournament has delivered but also backed up by the fact teams in the underdog slot emerge victorious from this position.
It's one of those years in which I can see all four no. 12 seeds advancing but my guess is two actually will. Which two? Tough to say.
In the East Region, the San Diego State Aztecs begin their run to return to the title game as the fifth seed. It's the exact seed they had a season ago, and begin with no. 12 seed UAB Blazers. UAB won the AAC tournament as the fourth seed
The Wisconsin Badgers are fresh off a run to the Big Ten championship game and hold the fifth seed in the South Region. Wisconsin is 4-4 in their last eight games and faces the no. 12 seed James Madison Dukes. The Dukes have won 13 straight, including a Sun Belt tourney title, and own a win over Maryland in non-conference play.
Both of the final two no. 5 seeds come from the WCC. Saint Mary's won the regular season and the conference tournament and enjoyed quite the season with 26 wins. In the West Region, they face the Grand Canyon Lopes, who went 29-4 and won the WAC. Three losses occurred in conference play for the Lopes, falling to tournament team South Carolina in non-conference play.
Grand Canyon owns a win over San Diego State while the Gaels only lost once in conference play, falling to Gonzaga.
The Bulldogs had somewhat of a down year, by their standards, but managed to secure a no. 5 seed in the Midwest Region. They take on McNeese Cowboys, who are 30-3 and enter the Big Dance with an 11-game winning streak.
Potential upsets and deep runs
Momentum is a good asset to have for making noise in the NCAA tournament. So, too, is a fire being lit by a worse seeding than expected.
For at least two Mountain West teams, forced into a play-in game could very well be that spark.
Many projections had the Boise State Broncos in the seventh or eighth slot, while some projections did have the Colorado State Rams as one of the final four teams in. The Broncos own a win over Saint Mary's and the Rams began the season 13-1.
Both will be the tenth seed, playing in the First Four, and could use the idea of disrespect to propel themselves to a couple of tournament wins. The Mountain West tournament champ New Mexico Lobos find themselves a no. 11 seed. Their experienced guard play could be a factor in them making a run to at least the Sweet 16. (And if the Mountain West really wants to make a statement, placing 2-3 teams in the Sweet 16 would be outstanding.)
The Drake Bulldogs (no. 10 in the East) can play spoiler as well another Bulldogs team, Samford (no. 13 in the Midwest). Among the higher seeded teams not on the top line, I can see Creighton, Illinois, and Marquette making deep tourney runs.
Play-in games
Over the years, these First Four matchups have started the tournament off in thrilling fashion, with some teams even making noise on the opening weekend.
Eight teams will be looking to do the same in 2024, beginning Tuesday in Dayton, Ohio. (Times at 6:40 p.m. and 9:10 p.m. Eastern both nights.
- Midwest Region March 19: (16) Howard Bison vs (16) Wagner Seahawks
- West Region - March 19: (10) Virginia Cavaliers vs (10) Colorado State Rams
- South Region - March 20: (16) Montana State Bobcats vs (16) Grambling Tigers
- Midwest Region - March 20: (10) Boise State Broncos vs (10) Colorado Buffaloes
photo credit: Wikimedia Commons
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