NCAA men's tourney 2024 Sweet 16: Cinderella, wherefore art thou?

 

Perhaps we have become too accustomed to multiple Cinderella teams reaching the Sweet 16 and beyond in the men's NCAA tournament. It's an intricate desire in rooting for underdogs to buck the trend and shock the world, capturing the attention of fans for two to three weeks in March.

This March Madness and Sweet 16 for the men's side of action will have to do without in 2024.

Okay. One double digit seed is hanging around. But do they really count as a Cinderella if that team is from a Power conference?

I say yes, simply because the no. 11 seed out of the South Region, the NC State Wolfpack, is riding the high of playing basically seven elimination games in a row. In looking way back to the ACC tournament, the Wolfpack won five games in five days in capturing the conference tournament title over the North Carolina Tar Heels.

NC State went ahead and won their first two games of the NCAA tournament, winning by 13 over Texas Tech and by six over Oakland to keep their season rolling.

The Wolfpack are the lowest remaining seed in the '24 tourney. The top eight seeds are hanging around, plus two each on the three, four, and five lines, with a sixth seed rounding out the group. Perceived to be a weaker conference, the ACC leads the pack with four teams remaining, while the Big East Conference held firm with its three selected teams still standing. 

The Big Ten, Big 12, and SEC have two representatives, with the Mountain West, WCC, and PAC-12 holding court with one each.

Cinderella teams may have taken a back seat heading into the Sweet 16 but there is still a chance for some surprises as the field shrinks.

East Region

In the East Region, seeds 1, 2, 3, and 5 remain, with a marquee event a rematch of last year's title game between the Connecticut Huskies (33-3) and San Diego State Aztecs.

The Huskies claimed the title with a 76-59 victory. Many of the key players from both sides have moved on but each brings plenty of talent to the table.

UConn has lived up to its top billing in this tournament, shooting over 50 percent from the field in 39-point (Stetson) and 17-point (Northwestern) victories. In that round of 32 game, the Huskies were up 40-18 at halftime.

UConn has lost only once since the calendar flipped to 2024 and have used big tournament games from Donovan Clingan (33 points, 22 rebounds) and First-team All-American Tristen Newton (33 points, 18 assists). Clingan had eight blocked shots against Northwestern and Newton is one of the holdovers from last year's title game, where he scored 19 points and collected 10 rebounds.

Star power is certainly not lacking in the other three teams in the region. Jaedon LeDee has paced the Aztecs (26-10) in this tournament, scoring 58 points and 17 rebounds. Terrance Shannon Jr. scored 56 points for Illinois, who won their games by 16 (Morehead State) and 26 (Duquesne Dukes).

The Fighting Illini (28-8), in their first Sweet 16 since 2005, also have Dain Dainja and Max Domask. Dainja comes off the bench and has scored 29 points on 13-13 shooting, while Domask had a triple-double in their opening round victory.

Iowa State (29-7) has looked impressive, committed only 15 turnovers in the tournament. The Cyclones own wins over South Dakota State and Washington State by an average of 14 points. 

Winners of seven of eight, the Cyclones were last in the Sweet 16 in 2022 and looking for their first Elite 8 since 2000.

Sweet 16, East Region matchups (Predicted winners in bold, all times Eastern.)

  • (5) San Diego State vs (1) UConn - TBS/truTV 7:39 p.m. (3/28)
  • (3) Illinois vs (2) Iowa State - TBS/truTV 10:09 p.m. (3/28)

West Region

The Clemson Tigers (23-11) are the surprise of this region and are looking for their first Elite 8 appearance since 1980. In reaching their first Sweet 16 since 2018, Clemson defeated New Mexico by 21 and Baylor by eight.

Chase Hunter has paced Clemson with 41 points and 12 assists in the tournament. Fellow guard Joseph Girard III has struggled some, shooting only 6-21 from the field.

On the opposite bench, the Arizona Wildcats (27-8) are hoping for their first Elite 8 appearance since 2015. The Wildcats own two double-digit wins in this tournament and average 87.6 points per game on the season. Arizona is led by Caleb Love, who has 37 points, 14 rebounds, and 10 assists in the tournament but is only 13-32 on field goal attempts.

Love's former team North Carolina brings plenty of experience to this region, with multiple stars remaining from the squad that lost in the 2022 title game. RJ Davis is right on par with his season average of 21.3 points, scoring 42 in the tourney. Armando Bacot scored 38 points and collected 22 boards thru two games.

UNC is 8-5 all-time against the Alabama Crimson Tide (23-11), who are back in the Sweet 16 a second consecutive year. The teams last met in November of 2022, where Alabama won a four-overtime affair.

Alabama averages 90.7 points per game and scored 100+ points in ten games this season, including their opening round win over Charleston. The Crimson Tide proved they can also win a grind-it-out game with their 11-point victory over Grand Canyon in round two.

Sweet 16, West Region matchups (Predicted winners in bold, all times Eastern.)

  • (6) Clemson vs (2) Arizona - CBS 7:09 p.m. (3/28)
  • (4) Alabama vs (1) UNC - CBS  9:39 p.m. (3/28) 

South Region

With two representatives in this region, odds for the ACC to send a team to the Final Four seem reasonable. Both, however, will have their hands full.

Many (or maybe just me) did not see the Duke Blue Devils (26-8) reaching this round. Yet the Blue Devils impressed, winning by 17 over Vermont and 38 over James Madison. Based on seeding and name brand, yes, Duke should have won these games. But they seemed to lack a certain mystique this season.

Duke reached the Final Four in 2022, while the Wolfpack last reached the Sweet 16 in 2015 and haven't made an Elite 8 since 1986.

For the Marquette Golden Eagles (27-9), it had been since 2013 where they'd appeared in a Sweet 16. They won by 18 over W. Kentucky and four over Colorado, but did have their struggles in both games. And the Golden Eagles closed the regular season/conference tournament on a 3-3 stretch. Those losses, however, were to UConn (twice) and Creighton, two teams playing this weekend.

Top-seed Houston (32-4) also had their struggles, blowing an 11-point lead with 1:34 left in the Round of 32. The Cougars prevailed in overtime and are making their fifth-straight appearance in the Sweet 16. Houston shot over 50 percent in each of their first two tournament victories. The combination of Emanuel Sharp, L.J. Cryer, and Jamal Shead has accounted for 113 of Houston's 186 points.

Sweet 16, South Region matchups (Predicted winners in bold, all times Eastern)

  • (11) NC State vs (2) Marquette - CBS 7:09 p.m. (3/29)
  • (4) Duke vs (1) Houston - CBS 9:39 p.m. (3/29)

Midwest Region

Like Duke, it is somewhat of surprise the Gonzaga Bulldogs (27-7) are here. Not in the general sense because this is their ninth-straight Sweet 16 appearance. More so in that theirs was a down year in some regards.

But Gonzaga picked up identical 21-point victories over McNeese and Kansas. Anton Watson (34 points, 19 rebounds in two tourney games) and the Bulldogs will meet up with Purdue for a second time this season. Back at the start of '23-24, Purdue won 73-63.

The Boilermakers (31-4) and Zach Edey have looked nearly unstoppable in winning their first tourney games by 28 (Grambling State) and 39 (Utah State). Edey has 53 points and 35 rebounds to go with six blocked shots in two games. 

In that first meeting between the teams, Edey had 25 points and 14 rebounds while Gonzaga was 6-32 from beyond the arc.

Offense and defense will match wits in the final matchup of Sweet 16. The Creighton Bluejays (25-9) are appearing in their third Sweet 16 in the last four seasons. Creighton loves the three-point shot, knocking down 25 so far in this tournament. They are coming off a double-overtime victory over Oregon, where four different Bluejays scored 18+ points.

The Tennessee Volunteers (26-8) will look to get physical with Creighton and are comfortable playing both styles. They shot 50.9 percent from the field against Saint Peters (knocking down 11 threes) but shot only 33.8 percent against Texas (with an abysmal 3-25 from deep). Expect a better performance from the Vols as this game will come down to which style wins out.

Sweet 16, Midwest Region matchups (Predicted winners in bold, all times Eastern.)

  • (5) Gonzaga vs (1) Purdue - TBS/truTv 7:39 p.m. (3/29)
  • (3) Creighton vs (2) Tennessee - TBS/truTV 10:09 p.m. (3/29)
*My bracket is in some disarray but seven of my predicted Elite 8 teams are still standing. And I went 14-2 in the Sweet 16 picks I made in last weekend's post. So, take that as you will.

photo credit: Wikimedia Commons

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