A free-for-all with big implications, after a gauntlet of a regular season and in which all 11 teams have a chance to be crowned tournament champs.
Okay. Perhaps the chances for some require great Vegas odds. In all honesty, it wouldn't surprise me if a lower seed makes a deep run. In the regular season, no. 11 seed Air Force picked up their only conference wins against New Mexico and UNLV.
As the no. 10 seed, San Jose State defeated Air Force twice and played close games with top teams. And in the nine spot, Fresno State, too, had close meetings with top teams, but picked up their four conference wins by sweeping Air Force and San Jose State.
Wyoming is lingering right there as the no. 8 seed, with victories over Colorado State and New Mexico among their regular season wins.
In a conference vying for possibly six teams in the NCAA tournament (with a longshot opportunity to place seven, if UNLV wins the title), the heat is on. Ranked teams, excellent non-conference wins, and beating each other for Quad 1 wins defined the Mountain West season. Slugfests and close games, plus improved play in recent years, should make this an exciting four days of basketball.
Favorites with first-round byes
Most bracketologists agree on at least five teams from the Mountain West making the NCAA tournament. Four of those earned first-round byes in the conference tourney. While it's never a good idea to count your chickens before they hatch, especially come March in college basketball, these four should be safely in. Ultimately, another win or two could improve seeding, while one team needs a title to earn a chance at the Dance.
Ranked 18th in the nation, the Utah State Aggies (26-5, 14-4) went and won a regular season title behind a revamped lineup. The Aggies have continued to astound, even as I pictured them faltering once conference play began.
Utah State enters this tournament having one seven of eight. Their only loss in this span was by 20 to the Colorado State Rams. The Aggies average 79.9 points per game and are powered by conference Player of the Year Great Osobor. Osobor averages 17.6 points and 9 rebounds per game and is coming off a 21 and 12 performance against New Mexico, also with three each in assists, blocks, and steals.
Four players average double figures, with Darius Brown II averaging 12.4 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 6.4 assists per game.
Powered by a dynamic backcourt, the 23rd-ranked Nevada Wolf Pack (26-6, 13-5) snatched the second seed the last day of the regular season. Nevada has won seven straight, winning by an average of 10.5 points, and own a win over Utah State this season.
Jarod Lucas and Kenan Blackshear combine for 32.9 points and 7.7 rebounds per game, with Blackshear dishing out 4.8 assists. A not-so-deep bench will be without sixth man Hunter McIntosh. McIntosh, prior to the UNLV game last Saturday, scored 70 points in his last four games but will miss the Mountain West tournament with a sore knee.
The Boise State Broncos (22-9, 13-5) enter as the third seed, having won six of seven. While the Broncos swept San Diego State and New Mexico this season, they lost to UNLV and lost both games to Utah State.
Four starters for Boise State score in double figures, led by junior Tyson Degenhart, who averages 16.8 points and six rebounds per game. Point guard Roddie Anderson III is the only starter below 10 points per game. Anderson came on during the back half of conference play and scored 16 points and had six rebounds and three assists last Friday night against San Diego State.
Boise State's bench has also come on as of late, providing valuable minutes as Boise State looks to enter their third straight NCAA tournament.
A team that needs to be at its best is the UNLV Rebels (19-11, 12-6). The Rebels enter the tournament with a 10-2 record in their last 12 games. Both losses in this stretch were to Nevada but UNLV does have a bad loss to its name, falling by 32 to Air Force.
The Rebels broke 70 points only twice in their last six games so scoring can dry up for UNLV. Freshman point guard Dedan Thomas Jr. scores 13.6 points and 5.2 assists per game. Thomas has picked up the efficiency in the last two games, averaging 19.2 points.
UNLV's opponent in the quarterfinals on Thursday will be the San Diego State Aztecs (22-9, 11-7). National runners-up a season ago, the Aztecs have experienced a bevy of highs and lows this season and have lost three of their last five games. They closed the season with a rare home loss, falling to Boise State in overtime.
Jaedon LeDee averages 20.5 points and 8.2 rebounds per game. LeDee had a double-double (20 points, 11 boards) in San Diego State's win over UNLV earlier this. But struggled last week when the Rebels won 62-58, in which LeDee was only 2-12 from the field.
One of these five teams will reach the finals but my gut tells me one of the teams playing in the opening round will get there as well.
Opening round matchups
Relegated to the opening round and needing to win four games in four days for a title is a monumental task for any team. Colorado State and New Mexico can be considered a contender, especially since both are in the NCAA tournament or on the bubble, depending on who is asked. The Rams are likely safe, thanks to solid non-conference success. New Mexico could need to reach at least the semifinals if they want to feel safer in reaching the Big Dance.
The Colorado State Rams (22-9, 1-8) enter as the no. 7 seed, where they will take on the no. 10 seed San Jose State Spartans (9-22, 2-16). The two teams met only once in the regular season, with the Rams winning 66-47.
In that game, Isaiah Stevens had nine points and 11 assists for Colorado State. Stevens averages 16.8 points and seven assists per game.
Rashaan Mbemba led the Rams with 13 points that game, with Joel Scott adding 12 and Nique Clifford added 11 (with 11 rebounds). Scott and Clifford combine for 25 points and 13.2 rebounds per game.
The Rams started off the season 13-1 and have lost three of their last five, all losses by a combined 11 points. Six of their conference losses were by single digits.
San Jose State enters on a six-game losing streak. Myron Amey Jr. averages 15.7 points per game, with Alvaro Cardenas chipping in 13.1 Cardenas had 14 points, 4 rebounds, and 5 assists in the first meeting and Amey scored 13.
The no. 6 New Mexico Lobos (22-9, 10-8) will look to avenge a regular season loss to the no. 11 Air Force Falcons (9-21, 2-16). New Mexico won the first meeting by 19 but lost to Air Force by one.
The Lobos have lost four of six but do own wins over Utah State, Nevada, San Diego State, and a sweep of Colorado State. They boast a fantastic inside/outside game but the bench is thin. New Mexico averages 82.3 points per game, with Jamal Mashburn Jr. leading the way at 15.1 points per game.
Inside, JT Topping and Nelly Junior Joseph combine for 21.8 points and 16.9 rebounds per game.
On the other side, the Falcons have lost four straight. Rytis Petraitis is a triple threat, averaging 15.2 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 3.8 assists per game. Beau Becker shoots 40.2 percent on three-point attempts and scored 42 points against the Lobos this season.
In the eight vs nine game, both teams enter the tournament struggling. The Wyoming Cowboys (15-16, 8-10) have lost four of six, while the Fresno State Bulldogs (11-20, 4-14) have lost seven in a row.
Wyoming defeated Fresno State 86-47 in the regular season finale and defeated the Bulldogs by one earlier this year.
The Cowboys own wins over Nevada and Colorado State this season. Fresno State had some close games, losing by two to UNLV and four to Utah State.
Sam Griffin powers Wyoming, scoring 16.8 points per game. Isaiah Hill powers a depleted Fresno State team, with 12.1 points and 6.1 assists per game.
Opening round schedule for March 13 (All times Pacific)
- # 8 Wyoming vs #9 Fresno State 11:00 a.m.
- #7 Colorado State vs #10 San Jose State 1:30 p.m.
- #6 New Mexico vs #11 Air Force 4:00 p.m.
photo credit: Flickr
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