In Boston, the "Jays" (Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown) have the Celtics back in the Finals for the second time in the last three seasons. On the other bench, the (somewhat) newly minted duo of Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving hope to bring the Mavericks their first title since a 2011 championship over the Miami Heat (which was also the franchise's first championship).
A title drought for the Celtics has been longer, last winning the championship in 2008. Here they sit, four wins away from raising banner no. 18 to the rafters, hoping to break a tie with the Lakers for the most all-time in the NBA.
Boston won both regular season contests against Dallas in 2023-24, winning 119-110 and then 138-110 in early March.
Success from the dynamic duos will dictate how each team fares, with plenty of help on either side in determining which franchise walks away champion.
Boston Celtics
The road to the NBA Finals for the Boston Celtics has been one of great success, beginning with achieving the league's best record. Boston won each of their first two rounds in five games (over the Heat and the Cavs), then swept the Indiana Pacers in the Eastern Conference Finals.
For much of the playoffs, they have done so without Kristaps Porzingis, one of the main offseason additions to the club. Porzingis injured his calf in the first-round and has been out since but he expects to play in the Finals, even if not at 100 percent.
Porzingis did miss the first meeting between the clubs in the regular season, scoring 24 points in the later victory.
Tatum had a double-double in the first meeting, with 39 points and 11 rebounds, and added a 32-point, 8-rebound performance in victory number two. Brown scored 59 points in the two games, with Jrue Holiday putting up 17 points, 7 rebounds, and six assists in the first meeting.
Brown and Tatum have been the stars of the playoffs for the Celtics, with Brown selected as the Eastern Conference Finals MVP. Brown has been the most consistent during the playoff run, averaging 25 points per game. Against the Pacers, he averaged 29.8 (including a 40-point effort in Game 2) while shooting 51.7 percent from the field.
Across 14 games in the playoffs, Brown is shooting 54.1 percent. He failed to hit 50 percent in only three games, none of which occurred in the Eastern Conference Finals.
Tatum has seemingly improved with each round and is the team's leading scorer (26 ppg) and rebounder (10.4). For good measure, Tatum is also averaging 5.9 assists per game.
Shooting the ball has been streaky for Tatum but been better. Overall, Tatum is at 44.2 percent on field goal attempts and 29 percent from deep. Both were better against the Pacers (46.3/30.6), where Tatum averaged 30.3 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 6.3 assists.
One concern is turnovers, where Tatum went from having nine in the first round to 13 in the EC Finals.
Holiday and Derrick White continue to prove their worth, with Holiday having his best series against the Pacers. Holiday averaged 18.5 points and shot 58.7 percent from the field. In Games 1 & 2, Holiday was 16 of 23 in going for 43 points.
White has cooled off from his blistering start but still averages 17.8 points per game. In the clincher to send Boston to the Finals, White had 16 points, 4 rebounds, 4 assists, three blocked shots and five steals and has 69 assists to only ten turnovers in this year's playoffs.
Al Horford has been as solid as ever averaging 9.9 points and 7.3 rebounds, unlocking a huge Game 3 against the Pacers with seven 3's. The core of Payton Pritchard and Sam Hauser have seen the most minutes off the bench. Hauser, however, is in a bit of a slump, connecting only once in his last 14 attempts from deep. Luke Kornet, Oshae Brissett, and Xavier Tillman have all contributed throughout the playoffs as well.
The Celtics averaged 111.4 points, shooting 48 percent from the field and 36.8 on three-point attempts in the first three round. Boston pulls down 43.7 rebounds and dishes out 23.6 assists per game.
Dallas Mavericks
Dallas delivered similar numbers to the Celtics during their Western Conference run. The Mavericks averaged 107.9 points per game, shooting 47.1 percent from the field and 37.2 percent from deep. The team pulls down 43.1 rebounds with 22.4 assists per game.
The run of the Mavericks to the Finals involved three more games than the Celtics. Dallas defeated the Los Angeles Clippers and Oklahoma City Thunder (each in six games), then took care of the Minnesota Timberwolves in five games.
Much of their success has been predicated on the play of their dynamic duo, led by the wonderful play of Dončić.
Aiming for a title in his fifth season, Dončić has been on a triple-double tear, posting six in the postseason. He had two in the meetings with Boston this season, averaging 35 points, 15 rebounds, and 12 assists.
In the playoffs, Dončić is putting up 28.8 points, 9.6 rebounds, and 8.8 assists per game. The three-point percentage is at 34.3. A little low because of a 4-27 stretch in the final three games of the first round but Dončić hit on 43.4 percent of his attempts against Minnesota.
Irving has been better overall from deep, at 42.1 percent, and is near 50 percent (48.5) from the field. All told, Irving has six games of 30 points or more in the playoffs, averaging 22.8 (upped to 27 against the Timberwolves).
PJ Washington is the only other Maverick who averaged double digits in scoring during the first three rounds. Washington scored 13.6 while also pulling down 6.7 rebounds.
Dereck Lively II is a rising star in these playoffs and can be a huge difference maker, especially if Porzingis is out or limited. Lively is averaging 8.6 points and 7.2 rebounds, shooting 66.7 percent from the field. Daniel Gafford is also a key component in the paint, shooting 61.4 percent while averaging 9.2 points per game.
Prediction
The Celtics will need to contain Dončić, control the boards (or keep the totals close), and prevent Irving from getting in the paint. More importantly for Boston, I think it's about limiting the damage done by the role players for the Mavs. Dončić is going to do his thing, and it will take throwing multiple defenders his way to slow him down.
In response, Dallas will need consistent play from a third (and perhaps fourth) player to stand a chance and keep Boston's defense honest. The Mavericks will also need to do their best to not let Boston's other stars shine because Tatum and Brown will get their points.
Porzingis is an x-factor, though only in how far this series goes. I feel his return and health, even playing at 80 percent and 20 minutes per game, will make this a quick series. And if he's out, or only available for a few games, then this might be a series. But the signs seem to be pointing to this being the year of the Celtics. Boston in six
Game 1 is set for June 6 in Boston, with tip-off at approximately 8:30 p.m. (ET) on ABC.
photo credit: Wikimedia Commons
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